Impressive analysis by our UK colleagues.
Bottom line: Covid-19 is here until a vaccine arrives (12-18 months).
Letting it run loose (ripping the bandaid off) will kill 2.2 million in the US and ~500K in the UK. Suppression followed by relaxation just pushes ‘the hit’ downstream and still kills us financially.
Unless another, better idea is developed (fingers crossed), the pragmatic path forward will be full suppression followed by coordinated, compliant, BRIEF periods of relaxation of social distancing.
Central to the idea is to allow exposure/herd immunity to develop SLOWLY without overwhelming the hospitals/ICUs.
At this point (like in any good movie), someone has to rub their chin (OK skip that, we’re not touching our faces) and exclaim “I know it sounds crazy … but that just may work !!!”
This is the challenge of our generation. Begin to get over the loss of our old lives and embrace this new reality. AT least 70% must be on board for it to work. Can we do it?
Bonus motivation: we have no choice.